Betting Markets Declare Biden Election Win, Helped by MSM Propaganda, Stock Market Big Picture Dear Reader US election night proved to be a nail biting event, one of Biden taking an early lead that within hours evaporated where by Midnight US time it looked as though Trump could pull off another election miracle like 2016 with a lot of glum faces on the Democrats propaganda network channel CNN, whose presenters spent subsequent hours trying to ignore the stream of bad news by repeating the mantra that there are a lot of Democrat votes to come in later (mail in ballots) after election night is over as if they were party to inside information? Where betting markets are concerned then after the election night wobble which saw the Betfair odds for Biden widen from 1.4 to briefly over 4., However by the time dawn broke in the US Biden was back to being the favourite to win the election at a tight 1.15 to 7.5 for Trump, which is where he has remained for a good 48 hours. Thus the betting markets have in effect declared Biden to have won the US election. Much more in my most recent video - Whilst my video of Tuesday 3rd November some 8 hours before the polls closed warned to expect a Chaotic season finale to the Trump Show, one of Trump taking an early polls lead to declare himself victorious and then to go to war against the count of the Bail in Ballots. So the pollsters got another election badly wrong, so much for the 8% lead and projections for an easy Biden win with over 400 electoral college votes that the likes of MSNBC and Nate Silver were peddling with their worthless polls. A reminder my forecast as of 31st October stated that whilst Biden would win, however the election was going to be a lot closer than the pollsters were suggesting, forget a Biden winning with over 400 electoral college votes, instead reality was for a win with just over 300 votes given my forecast for a LESS than 3% spread between Biden and Trump which is what has subsequently transpired. And finally here's an excerpt from my latest stock market analysis of the Big Picture, because when all is said in done what happens over the next few weeks is just noise. Stock Market Trend Forecast into End December 2020, Final Election Forecast Matrix THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE The starting point for this analysis is to remind my Patrons of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!) Which would roughly convert into the Dow trading at 100k by the Late 2030's. THAT IS THE BIG PICTURE! So the primary objective is to KEEP CALM AND REMAIN INVESTED IN AI STOCKS, a message I have been iterating since soon after the Dow bottomed in March 2009 (Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470) "The greater the deviation from the bull market high then the greater the buying opportunity being presented" At my last AI stocks update many stocks had run way ahead of valuations on my EC metric, for instance Amazon was trading at $3300 on an EC ratio of 148 (objective is to buy Amazon at levels below 100). Of course the revenues and profit bonanza from the lockdown's and the work from home demand surge should ensure that most AI stocks see their EC levels moderate as earnings reports come in, especially for the likes of Amazon and AMD which is literally on FIRE! KILLING Intel and now also giving Nvidia a run for its money! AMD is definitely NOT a stock that any investor should contemplate selling out of regardless of how high it trades because this stock is literally on FIRE! I will update the AI stocks buying levels in due course, but just a reminder to be aware of the big picture and not get lost in short-term noise that is the the US presidential election is, and which ever way the stocks trend over the next couple of months which are unlikely to deviate much to the downside against the bull market highs given the fundamentals of the AI Mega-trend. This analysis is an excerpt from my latest in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into January 2021.Stock Market Trend Forecast into End December 2020, Final Election Forecast Matrix
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Your analyst thinking that the Trump Election Results Chaos may only just be beginning! By Nadeem Walayat Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved. Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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Saturday, 7 November 2020
Betting Markets Declare Biden Election Win, Helped by MSM Propaganda, Stock Market Big Picture
