Originally, Bitcoin and crypto was posited to be a hedge against inflation, inversely correlated with the markets, an alternative asset of sorts that you could buy to protect your money during tumultuous times. It was supposed to be like gold, but better. Well, apparently that division between crypto and the traditional markets is starting to become increasingly blurry, and a red day for the Nasdaq can just as easily become a bad day for Bitcoin hodlers as well. So, what happened? An interesting tweet (credits to Dylan LeClair) from April 6th denoted that, over the last 30 days, Bitcoin and the $QQQ had actually been trading at a 0.90 rolling correlation. If you’re a stats nerd and know all about rolling correlations, that’s awesome. But for the rest of us, we just need to understand that hey, it looks like they’re highly correlated, so why? There’s no surefire answer, but there are a few observations: - Traditional investors have become crypto traders. Over the last two years, the crypto markets witnessed their second memorable bull run, and this time it was in concert with a euphoric stock market at a time where risky investing, day trading, and meme stocks became a trend. This allure drew in both new traditional and crypto investors alike, and it inevitably formed somewhat of a shared community around that movement.
- Crypto and stocks side by side in brokerages. Crypto has gone from being a nascent, obscure investment to something you can buy on many online brokerages like Robinhood, Webull, and more, making it even more closely associated with typical trading.
- Additionally, crypto is viewed vaguely as “tech.” As it’s being lumped in with traditional investing, crypto inevitably has to be considered something, right? And what else would we classify it as other than tech, where we’ve seen the strongest correlations?
The problems with this going forward This should be concerning for crypto fundamentalists, because the entire thesis behind most of the industry is to break free from traditional finance and its reliance on middlemen, and hopefully even serve as a safe haven whenever traditional markets falter. Bitcoin’s unprecedented correlation with tech stocks begs the question of whether sentiment could spill over between the two markets. If each could weigh down or lift up the other at any time, does that then mean that Big Tech has now embraced crypto? The markets certainly seem to agree. |