The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market Dear Reader The stock market continues to trend in line with my expectations for an mid April higher low that I am sure will be accompanied by maximum fears of a CRASH to NEW bear market lows, which without any road map would be ones natural instincts to expect, i.e. most market commentators tend to be bullish AFTER stocks have gone up and BEARISH AFTER stocks have fallen. Instead with a road map, I am not seeing any reason to not continue to expect stocks to bottom and then rally strongly into May and thus I wll continue accumulating target stocks as and when opportunities arise over the coming week whilst most will kick the can down the road out of fear of new lows. Note: The information provided in this article is solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation or personalised advice. Several patrons have asked for what happens post Mid May, Firstly understand that my current trend expectations largely date back to my in-depth analysis of September 2021 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022. That's right virtually all of what I have expected to happen over the past 7 months has it's basis in that one piece of in-depth analysis that I refined on the 5th of December following the CI18 trigger that largely extends into Mid May beyond which I will need to do in-depth analysis on similar scale to that of September 2021. However the sum of my analysis to date has the following pattern playing out in my mind as being most probable outcome ahead of new in-depth analysis. a. that the Dow is targeting setting a lower low at below Dow $31k most likely during the late summer months with August being the most likely candidate for a low. b. That the low would set the scene for a rally to new all time highs during Q4. So currently I see the Dow setting a new all time high later this year whether it ends the year up is difficult to say given how volatile the market is this year, i.e. could easily move 5-10% in a week so despite a Q4 all time high may end 2022 down on the year. This analysis (The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market, AI Stocks Buying Levels Going Into Earnings) was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Latest analysis include -
The Stocks STEALTH Bear Market My consistent message for the duration of this bear market has been to not make the mistake of focusing on the indices for if you do you WILL likely MISS ALL of the buying opportunities. You know how it goes? A stock falls but the market is relatively strong so I'll wait till he stock market falls before buying. Or the Stock market falls hard and one gets ones list of stocks to buy but most of the stocks have hardly budged or worse are trading higher than before, net result is one ends up buying little or nothing worth buying as one waits for that BIG stock market panic sell off. However, as the following graph of the S&P accompanied by the Top 10 AI tech stocks from my portfolio illustrates that NONE of the stocks bottomed when the S&P bottomed late February, In fact none of the stocks even bottomed in February. What about the Nasdaq I hear you say, that bottomed Mid March along with Amazon, Apple and Facebook. Whilst Google and AVGO put in their bear market lows over 2 months ago in late January. With AMD's low on Friday. So what's the point of basing ones stock buying off the indices? And as the bear market progresses the spread between individual stock lows will likely further widen. This is why - a. have predetermined buying levels to execute as and when they get triggered. b. Be prepared to accumulated target stocks whenever they trade to new bear market lows. c. To not panic buy stocks just because the stock market takes a plunge because given the valuations you will likely be over paying for certain tech stocks, instead have a plan and follow it. The reason why the indices have not budged much from their highs is because the bear market is cycling through stocks one by one like a Tasmanian devil. Today's stocks trading near their bear market lows will probably be higher than where they are today when the stock market put's in it's NEXT new bear market low. And as you can see many stocks have yet to experience their Tasmanian devil moment i.e. Google, AVGO, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. The real magnitude of the stocks bear market would be the average of all of the stock lows to date which would likely put the S&P some 10% lower. I suspect when the dust settles many of those high stocks currently flying high such as Apple and Microsoft will be waving to Facebook as they pass it on the way down. I know I am going to be over paying for Apple at $140 and $132, but one cannot invest with the benefit of hindsight. AI Stocks Buying Levels - Here is the current states of the AI Stocks portfolio. Which despite new buying now stands at 36.5% invested due to price drops and new tax year cash inflows. Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Apr/NW-AI-techstock-APR-15-BIG.jpg And here's a pie chart breakdown of my holdings in response to buying what's deemed to be cheap. High risk stocks portfolio (8th April). I continue to accumulate into NEW High Risk stocks each time I see them trade to new lows I buy more, I have reached over 70% invested in ARW and INMD. Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Apr/NW-High-Risk-Stocks-APR-8-BIG.jpg Why Valuations Are Primary TSMC a year ago was trading on a PE of 30! Today after the latest results is trading on a PE of 21.7! Therefore TSMC is a MUCH better buy today than it was a year ago! Though as I warned in a series of articles since Mid 2021, a valuation reset was imminent which means that a stock trading over a PE of 20 is EXPENSIVE, in fact I would move that down to a P/E of 18 which for TSMC implies that $81 is possible, this is nothing new and is part and parcel of my strategy for accumulating into this bear market as illustrated by my 31st Jan Buying Levels table that had my Big Buy No 3 set at $81 where for it to be achieved the TSMC stock price HAS to actually fall to $81! As you can see for most stocks I don't think this stealth bear market is even at the half way mark, hence why I am still near 40% in cash. I have yet to buy any significant amount of Google, in fact I have sold most of my earlier small buys on the bounces, whilst I retain a core position of around 30. To date stocks I have accumulated since late January are Medifast, TSM, Micron, Lam Research, QCOM, AMD and Facebook. And not forgetting the subsequent addition of AMAT. So I have plenty of buying left to be done on the prospects for a number of stocks to experience their valuation resets for instance Microsoft is trading on 31.8 X earnings! Apple X26, Nvidia X48!, Amazon $47! Whilst Tesla which has a cult like following amongst investors is on X170! Tesla investors should be praying it never experiences that sub 20 valuation reset! Instead virtually every stock I have plowed into were trading at BELOW a P/E of 20 at the time of purchase i.e. Micron X10, Qualcom X14, AMAT X16, etc. My simple valuation reset message remains constant - IF the stock you hold is trading on a PE at above 20 then you have to be prepared for a reset to BELOW 20.So whilst the likes of Nvidia are fantastic corporations, however at $212 it is still too expensive for me as it could tumble all the way down to $130, in fact my big buy limit order for some time has been parked at $164! So whilst I will accumulate Nvidia from $198 downwards, however I understand that it it has the potential to go far lower than MOST can imagine today at $212 let alone when it was trading at over $300 a share just a few months ago when I am sure I warned at the time that it could fall to as low as $140 which is why I was shorting Nvidia at $320. Here's another example of why valuation matters as back in November I was asked to analyse PAYPAL amongst several payment processors to see if they were worth buying at the time, during that process skeptical of PAYPAL's prospects I sought out suitable alternative payment processors settling on Global Payments (GPN) that had been on my radar for some time. Here's what I wrote about the two stocks in November - https://www.patreon.com/posts/best-stocks-to-1-59270812 Fin tech Stock - Global Payments Inc. And lastly a Patron recently asked for my opinion on investing in Visa, Master card and Paypal given that a big correction is in progress. We'll there is actually a fin tech stock on one of my watch lists that has meandered it's way down to a buying level - Global Payments Inc, GPN. Current price is $123 and the buying level I had penciled in was $122. GPN trades on a PE of 20 vs PayPal on 60, so much better value for money. All of the usual metrics look fine i.e. no obvious red flags, and with a market cap of $80 billion has room to grow, In fact I liked GPN so much that I added it to my high risk stocks portfolio as a very low risk level 1 stock. And here's what Paypal and GPN stock prices have done since. And where paypal is concerned I doubt very much the low is in and I would not be surprised to eventually see Paypal trade to below $86! That is a massive loss for all those who FAILED to pay attention to valuations and blindly bought the dips after watching the clowns on CNBC! The stock peaked at $310 and could be heading for a low of about $85! But people look at the chart see a huge price drop and then blindly buy, only to see the stock price continue falling. So don't be fooled by the stock charts, VALUATIONS ARE PRIMARY! Which is why virtually all of the NEW best ranked high risk stocks as in 25th Feb article were trading on PE's at well below 20 so as to not experience the valuation reset. For Instant Arrow, the No1 ranked stock on my 50 stock list was on a PE of 8! LOGI and CRUS on 15. JBL, FLEX and HPQ also sub 10. AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels State of Play Remember Guys and Gals I am playing the investing long game, I accumulate when cheap and distribute when expensive, for example last time stocks were cheap was during March 2020, Expensive 2nd half of 2021, so that was an approx 18 month swing from cheap to expensive, whilst swings from expensive to cheap tend to be relatively brief. https://youtu.be/F1ISFCgH8aA?t=7 DIRT CHEAP Qualcom $137, traded down to NEW BEAR LOW this week of $134 , it just keeps falling, I am now 85% invested of target amount and after last weeks price action I seriously starting to have regrets. REGRETING NOT BUYING MORE AT $134 THAT IS! Results are out on 27th April in advance of which we are likely to see a dip below $130. which will prompt me to buy more Qualcom, when the dust settles I am probably going to be well north of 100% invested, it all depends on how low the stock goes, the more it falls the more I will buy, with my BIG buy sat perched on a ledge at $125 that I placed eons ago! See valuation matters more than price when buying and selling. And Qualcom's on an EGF of 34%, Trailing PE of 14, and EC of 15, Upwards pressure of 200%, all of the numbers are PERFECT! But semi's are out of fashion, the fund managers are too scared to buy because they basically track what all of the other fund managers are doing. The time to worry about a stock is when the PE goes UP as the stock price falls then you are likely invested in typical Cathy Wood stock. Apple and AMD are similar in EGF terms but you will be paying X25 and X34 earnings for those two instead of X14 for Qualcom! My next nearest limit order is at $127 (4%). AMD - $92.65 - I bought some on the way down and will next buy more all the way down to $85. Before you ask how can it be cheap on a PE of 33, it is cheap in historic terms and has fast earnings growth (EGF 31%). And don't forget that AMD market cap is just $150bn, so unlike for instance Nvidia, AMD actually could X10 to $1.5 trillion, whilst Nvidia would X3 to $1.5 trillion. Always check the market caps before you FOMO into any stocks! My next buys are for 2.5% at 90 and 2.5% at 86. CHEAP FB - $210 - Imagine if you had a time machine and could go back in time and buy a stock for half it's high? We'll that's Facebook near enough at $210! So whilst some patrons were prepared to FOMO into it at above $335, despite me expecting over 10% lower prices at the time, but now at $210 are too fearful to accumulate when dirt cheap? Facebook on X15 earnings is dirt cheap, It's a lot cheaper than any of the other Top 8 AI stocks on my list. So despite siting me 128% exposure I will likely buy more when it trades to below $200 once more where I have a limit order to buy 3% at $188. Yes it's going to take some years for the metaverse to become manifest but earnings are still growing and as I have said before I would NOT be surprised if we see Facebook trade at $300 again THIS YEAR. AMAT - $114 - I bought only a little more given that I am now 93% invested. So my buying is light. but I will continue to add to as it falls, say every 3 or 4 bucks lower so where the more it falls the more I will buy. Current limit orders are 6% a $106, and 9% at $91. MU - $70 - Small buys sub $70, big buy at $64, my next limit order is 4% at $67.1. It's good for the long run but could turn out to be very volatile given the mood of the market, we could even see a drop below $50, but without the benefit of hindsight I will continue to scale in on NEW LOWS into this CHEAP stock. I have a huge order at $57 for an additional 30%! LRCX - $456 - Small sub $470, Big Sub $400. I am now 82%% invested as I continue to buy this falling knife, though holding off on any big buys until i see sub $400, Order for 10% at $392. MED - $184 - I aim to add more at below $168, but I am 93% invested.Pays a good dividend, Buying 8% at $158. IBM - $126.5 - Small sub $121, Big $114. IBM is a dark horse that EVERYONE is skeptical of, I'm looking at the numbers EGF 34%, PE ratio 13, EC 26, earnings are out on 19th April, I will continue to increase my exposure under $121. PFE - $53 - Trades on X12 whilst JNJ trades on 18.4. This is the type of stock to have exposure to right now! Buying levels are $50.6 and $46, I am eager to build a position as I would not be surprised if Pfizer doubles over the next 12 months so I will probably bite the bullet and buy exposure towards 15% near it's current price. SO AND SO GOOGLE - $2545 - Google is numero uno with great fundamentals and earnings track record for which on has to pay a price! I seek sub $2460 for big buys, Small sub $2532, so my next small buy should be imminent, with big buy at below $2400. So I don't want to buy google just for the sake of buying google, I want to buy Google on a sub 20 P/E which currently equates to a price of $2242, and in fact have had a big limit order near that price for some time. TSMC - $98 - Buying small sub $95, big sub $90. Posted great results and falls 2.5%! Why because it is still trading on a PE north of 20 (21.7). I am 73% invested. I don't have any limit orders in place, but I will buy more as it falls below $95, I will just keep nibbling away the lower it goes and it pays a 1.5% dividend. Max downside is probably $75 but I'm definitely not waiting for $75 before buying because the low will only be known in hindsight. It's a steady as she goes good AI tech stock THAT WILL TRADE to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS as long as Xi Ping does not bomb it's factories.. INTEL - $47 - A little more at $42.5. Remember this is sleeping giant for which the pay off is some years down the road as the EGF of -20% illustrates its not going much higher any time soon. ASML - $598 - Small sub $582, Big $528, I have a limit order at 528 (14%). ASML isn't cheap but it holds the semi trump cards. If investing in ASML one needs to definitely be prepared for the risks of draw down, it could drop to to as low as $380 but again we will only know with the benefit of hindsight. Samsung - $1360 - Sub $1300. I have limit order to buy at $1250. ABBV - $162 - Ran way ahead itself, I halved my position given that we are in a bear market (will probably turn out to be a mistake). I've got a limit order to buy at $141. The biotech pharma theme that I warned to expect for 2022 IS COMING TO PASS EXPENSIVE APPLE - $165 - Small sub $150, Big sub $140 - Still waiting for a BIG sell off in Apple stock. Even at $149 it's not going to be a cheap buy, but I'll take it to increase exposure towards 10% of target (current 3%). In many ways Apple resembles Qualcom i.e. refused to drop for months and then within a few short weeks lost 20%. Why is it not falling? because the institutional investors follow the herd, they do what other fund managers do! but I do expect the Apple nut to crack and to fall hard! We could easily see Apple trade to below $130 when my long standing buying level at $128 will be fulfilled! In the meantime I am SHORT Apple! AVGO - $587 - I seek sub $530, I have limit orders at $528 and $492. My current exposure is a very light 9% whilst I await a better valuation to pile into this great corporation. MSFT - $279 - I seek sub $270, I have a limit order at $262 but I am a reluctant buyer of Microsoft even at $262 the stock is expensive, My exposure is 15%, and I am in no rush to increase this. When I look at the chart what stands out to me is $232, So I think I am going to be a very light buyer of Microsoft unless I see $232 but even at $232 the stock will not be cheap! NVIDIA - $212 - I seek sub $200. Yes I know it's a great corporation but it is STILL EXPENSIVE. So I will be buying some at $198 and and $190 and larger orders at much lower prices. GPN - $140 - I seek sub $120 for big buys, small sub $127.The stock is refusing to fall despite the general market being in a downtrend. VERY EXPENSIVE JNJ $180 - It's a range stock that's trying to breakout to new highs above $180 which is why I cashed in all of my JnJ chips. There is a good chance that during this bear market it will trade down to $158 again where I will buy. If not, well then there are plenty of other stocks out there. TESLA - $990 - Short as of $1100, I closed about half my shorts during week, they are not meant to be investments but short-term trading positions. I am still seeking sub $700 to buy any Tesla exposure and even then it is not a top priority i.e. no limit orders to buy so maybe this is one stock that I never end up investing in not unless I see something like $400! DO NOT OVER PAY FOR TECH! The bottom line is if you are invested in a high valuation growth stock then you need to be prepared for a valuation reset to BELOW PE 20, probably as low as 16 i.e. where Facebook is currently perched. When I look at the profile of the market I see energy stocks, biotech's and utilities soaring whilst tech is suffering, this IS a consequence of the valuation reset. Whilst my focus IS mainly on AI stocks, however over the decades I have accumulated exposure to energy stocks and utilities that are parked in my legacy invest and forget portfolio. Whilst the focus of my High risk stocks portfolio is healthcare and biotech's, that also include 3 new stocks that made their way into my main portfolio during 2021 in recognition that over valued tech would pass the baton onto at least the biotech / healthcare sector hence my drive to gain exposure to healthcare BEFORE the valuation reset materialised. So when the dust finally settles we may see Google trade down to $2036, Amazon at $2288 and Apple at $132 etc as per my January table, all whilst the general indices trade near or at all time highs. So even if I buy Nvidia soon at say $190, I am probably still going to be buying too early and too high and thus will continue to keep some powder dry for potentially much lower prices, same for Microsoft, given it's PE where $232 will still be a high price to pay! Buy the Banks? I keep getting asked given low PE ratios and rising rates if one should consider buying the banks. We'll the financial crisis demonstrated that the banks DON'T REPORT THE TRIUTH! And hence why their P/E's are so low because the smart money understands that they are ticking time bombs primed to explode and we won't know exactly what they have been upto until they next start to explode. Though looking at the US housing market maxing out at 20% per annum then it is a good guess they have been upto more funny business related to the financing of the US housing market. This is not what a healthy banking system looks like - So no, I'm goring to waste time making a list of cheap banks because their upside is limited whilst the downside is Financial Crisis 2.0 which is still brewing in the background. I strongly suspect that the banking crime syndicate is STILL BANKRUPT and thus the central banks will NOT normalise monetary policy i.e. with rates north of inflation, nowhere near not if the banks remain permanently perched on the brink of a collapse that we will only know in detail with the benefit of hindsight but there are several smoking guns such as bank deposits vs bank lending, that's a $10 trillion dollar difference between lending and deposits and how much is the Fed going to tighten by? $95 billion a month? a drop in the ocean! Where do you think the banks are going to put a cash mountain they don't want to hold? Into short-term treasury bills, what does that imply? A steepening in the yield curve. Yield Cure Inversion MANIA Depending on who you watch the yield curve has inverted which signals a recession! Only one problem, the recession will be in anywhere from 1 to 3 years time! Come on, 1 to 3 years! Look at what stocks did over the past 2 years! Stocks could DOUBLE SOME EVEN TRIPLE BEFORE THE RECESSION BITES! The mainstream press lacks perspective, they take an event that could be irrelevant for upto 3 years as a BREAKING NEWS EVENT! No wonder retail investors are in a bit of panic, for they are perpetually bombarded with PANIC HEADLINE.. The way many are acting today as though the yield curve inversion has triggered a recession today! Here's what you need to know, when recession's actually materialise the yield curve has only ever BEEN INVERTED ONCE in 40 years, 1 out of 5 recession's. A better exercise would be to look at what the stocks did FOLLOWIng a yield curve inversion, yes you've guessed it stocks tend to RISE following an inversion! This is illustrates why investors need to separate investing from the macro noise, else they will make huge investing blunders. I constantly get asked rates are rising and a recession is looming so why buy stocks now why not wait, it's because one thing counts above all all else, VALUATIONS and their direction of travel is DIFFERENT for EVERY stock! As I have said before I could mot care less if there is a recession or not, as long as most people THINK their is going to be a recession and hence good stocks get marked down to deep discounts, even stocks with RISING projected earnings such as TSMC, Micron and AMAT, the markets got a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water where the tech sector is concerned which is good for buyers such as me. INMODE $30.5 - Featured High Risk Stock Originally ranked as Risk 3 in my analysis of 25th February (50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation when it was trading at $42 a share and on a PE of 20. Today the stock is trading at $30.5 and on a PE of 15 with an resulting EGF score of 25% and so today I would rank it nearer to 2 than 3. As you can see the stock has had a roller coaster ride first bid up to a ridiculous level during the buy any garbage growth stock bull market, peaking at about 60X earnings, Still the stock chart definitely looks scary as though the stock is on it's way to zero like many of the no earnings Cathy wood growth stocks are. However, as the P/E illustrates, unlike other growth stocks with similar charts INMODE MAKES PROFITS! So what that means is that the further the stock falls the cheaper it gets, 15 times earnings, is a good price to accumulate at, I actually started accumulating at around $36. Whilst most people looking at the chart will be focused on how low could it go, my focus is on the valuation i.e. see that earlier collapse in early 2020 from $30 to $7.6. Well during that period the PE fell from 32 to 10! That sowed the seeds for the bull run to $100. If the stock traded down to a PE of 10 again then that would price it at about $20. Whilst there is chart support at $30, $24.5 and $22, so to get to $20 it needs to break a number of support levels. So why INMODE ? We'll it is a SMALL CAP BIOTECH STOCK that makes profits! A very rare combination. It has strong sales growth (+45%) and strong earnings growth (+46%) and is clearly flying under the radar having fallen victim to earlier over valuation and thus has been slaughtered along with most growth stocks. Any negatives? Yes, they PRINT shares at the rate of 10% per annum, as long as earnings growth far outpaces share printing then this should not be a problem. And as we are in a bear market so there is a real risk that it trades down to $20 on a PE of 10. It's next earnings report is on the 2nd of May and it will be interesting to see if it is managing to maintain it's earnings and sales growth rates. If it is then this definitely not only has the potential to trade to new all time highs i.e. above $100 but is a strong contender to be a potential X10 stock! THATS IF ONE INVESTS AND FORGETS! Instead of wibble wobbling on every 10% movement. As always do your own research, especially when considering high risk stocks. The way I see it Fed Recession FEAR mania is gripping the markets which means virtually everything is being marked down. Your analyst reminding patrons that the INFLATION FIRES are RAGING OUT OF CONTROL! Big inflation is no longer coming as I was warning in 2020 and 2021, BIG INFLATION HAS ARRIVED and will stay with us for the whole of this decade. The only question mark is will the Fed over the coming years do a good job or completely screw things up! Best case we trundle along at an average inflation rate of about 6% per annum, worst case - HYPERINFLATION! Never forget the REAL cause of inflation which is Government and Central Bank money printing. Here is the jist of the problem we face - The governments and their central banks will FIGHT inflation WITH INFLATION! The governments run budget deficits in response to the beading hearts to do something about the cost of living crisis i.e. demand the government prints money to give to people to buy goods and services which CAUSES INFLATION. FIGHTING INFLATION WITH INFLATION THAT IS THE RESPONSE OF GOVERNMENTS! Good luck with getting inflation back down to 2% THIS DECADE! To protect ourselves from inflation one needs to invest in REAL ASSETS that cannot be printed and not be misdirected by price volatility for the direction of travel for money is towards ZERO! Which is why even if I thought UK house prices could fall by say 20%, I WOULD NOT SELL ANY PROPERTIES! Instead I would seek to accumulate more during the bear market. Whilst all investors fearfully sat on the sidelines need to realise that by the end of this year your cash will have LOST MORE than 10% of it's value! All whilst you have been sat to scared to invest due to fears of another 10% drop in stock prices! Again for immediate access to high probability trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. My Main Analysis Schedule
Your Analyst By Nadeem Walayat Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved. Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website. How to Subscribe Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter To access the Newsletter archive this link Forward a Message to Someone this link To update your preferences this link How to Unsubscribe - this link
The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication. | |||||||||||||||
Tuesday, 10 May 2022
The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market
