US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window Dear Reader It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 22nd September. ..... Stock Market Brief - 22nd Sept - 7pm (UK Time) US 0.5% rate cut signals that the Fed wants to bring rates down fast from the 5.5% peak, with likely another 0.5% cut before year end and probably targeting sub 4% by the end of 2025 to maybe to around 3.5% which will act as a huge wind behind the stocks bull markets sail as multiples expand. Which in fact is contrary to that which most expect i.e. the analogs being peddled across the blogosfear point to the Fed deep cuts being associated with bear markets which is true! BUT those cuts were in response to FINANCIAL and ECONOMIC CRISIS which is not so today. Remember the market DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT, so is discounting strong economic and earnings growth for 2025 following the 0.5% rate cut by expanding multiples in the present. Rate cuts should act to boost downtrodden stocks such as NIKE and Walt Disney that I accumulated some exposure to. S&P spiked higher on rate cut FOMO, whilst the direction of travel for the bull market is definetly higher i.e. I see the S&P trading to over 6000 during January 2025, in fact I have been stating for most of the year that S&P trading to 6000 before year end would not surprise me, nevertheless we remain in the 'correction' window that runs well into October that to date has delivered several opps to accumulate target stocks at deep discounts as my focus and I presume most Patrons is on accumulating AI tech stocks so what the S&P does or does not do is not that important given that it is what not most are seeking to buy or sell. Therefore we should get further bites at the AI cherries such as Nvidia over the coming weeks in the run upto the election 2024 when americans get to select their next shareholder in chief, a vested interest in maximising the return on their stock portfolio so focused on entering office to gift contracts to the corporate Oligarchy! And here's a reminder of why folk should not make the mistake of having little exposure to Nvidia, the more exposure the better - next gen accelerator (Blackwell) is 30x current gen H100, the AI bubble is nowhere near it's peak, take current deviation from the high as an opp you will regret missing, reminds me of buying bitcorn during Q4 2023, we all wanted it to dip back down to $25k but as I stated at the the time I was adding a little bit of bitcorn every other day to build up exposure, because eventually it's going to rocket higher, that's what folk should also be doing with likes of Nvidia. https://www.nvidia.com/en-b/data-center/gb200-nvl72/ Meanwhile bitcorn at BTC $62.8k remains on the launch pad awaiting blast off on break above $65k that will probably see BTC trade to well over $80k before it next corrects. The next rally is going to be nuts, folk are going to become convinced that $100k and then $200k are just around the corner just as Bitcoin next tops probably around $88k. Your buy the dips analyst focused on updating the EGF's etc in advance of next earnings season which will be the focus of my next article by which time most stocks will likely be trading significantly lower then where they trade today. For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Most Recent Analysis - Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2024 to Jan 2025 CONTENTS
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Monday 23 September 2024
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window
